The latest reading from the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment came in at 99.5, just 1.2% lower than February’s reading, which was the highest level in a year. That means pessimists marginally outnumber optimists, but it’s a strong showing nonetheless, especially considering where it had been until recently.
Economists largely attribute the previous month’s surge to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February rate cut, which took short-term rates to 2.25% from 2.5%. However, the bank was widely expected to follow through with yet another rate cut at its March meeting, and its decision to hold steady may have dampened sentiment in this month’s poll.
Of course, most consumers are likely paying little attention to central bank actions. Instead, they are probably reacting to how lower rates flow through to mortgages and other forms of consumer lending.
The other big factor weighing on consumer sentiment is perception of the job market and how that might affect a household’s personal finances.
To be sure, Australia is hardly in the midst of robust employment growth. But payrolls are growing nonetheless.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the country’s economy added 15,600 jobs in February, slightly better than the consensus forecast of 15,000.
And the unemployment rate ticked lower to 6.3%, just below January’s cycle high. However, that was likely the result of a lower labor force participation rate, which fell two-tenths of a point to 64.6%, just above the cycle low.
The ABS reported that full-time jobs rose 10,300, while part-time jobs increased by 5,300.
Over the trailing year, Australia’s economy has added an average of 12,600 jobs per month, compared to 10,700 over the trailing three-year period.
And full-time jobs recently regained their lead over part-time jobs.
Over the trailing one-year period, the number of full-time jobs rose by 7,000 per month versus 5,500 per month for part-time jobs. By contrast, over the trailing three-year period, full time jobs increased by 3,100 per month versus 7,500 per month for part-time jobs.
Full-time jobs are considered to be of higher quality than part-time jobs, owing to higher pay, better benefits, and greater stability.
Despite these promising results, there’s no question that the global commodities crash means Australia is facing some challenging economic headwinds. And most economists believe unemployment will inevitably head higher in the months to come.
While the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expects unemployment to peak at 6.5%, other economists see unemployment heading as high as 7%.
The big issue vexing policymakers is which of the non-mining sectors will step up to take the lead from the ailing resource sector.
JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters told The Australian, “We’re just not generating enough jobs to absorb those jobs that are being lost in mining.”
“I don’t think there’s enough confidence out there,” he observed. “Firms don’t feel that they want to make long-term investments; they’re just treading water.”
Perhaps another rate cut from the RBA will instill confidence and revive those dormant animal spirits.
We should know soon enough. Based on futures data aggregated by Bloomberg, a majority of traders are betting that the central bank will cut rates by at least a quarter-point at its May meeting
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