EUR/USD eased off 11-year lows of 1.1118 to stabilize at 1.1268, down 0.83%

As reported yesterday, bitcoin’s break of $226 had little follow-through. In the past 24 hours not much has changed. The lack of continuation persists with prices moving aimlessly around the $226 level. The day’s low stands at $221 per coin and the high at $229.73. We are currently trading in the middle of today’s range at $226.87 on BTC-E. As usual, bitcoin prices are trading at a small premium on rival exchanges OKCoin ($230) and BitStamp ($234).



In our two previous updates we cautioned against reading too much into the $226 breakout. The $226 swing high is weak resistance. With the medium and longterm trends firmly to the downside, we would need to see a much stronger rally before we can classify the move upward as a change in trend. A clearing of the $266 level may lead to this. On the downside, to restart the bearish trend we would need to see a break of the $162 mark. For the time being both of the important levels are relatively far away but we may adjust them depending on the price action going forward.

The Winklevoss twins plan to launch a new US-based bitcoin exchange. The project is called Gemini (the zodiac sign for twins). The website emphasizes the fact that the exchange is based in the USA:
”Gemini operates fully in the United States. We work exclusively with American banks; your dollars never leave the country”

Gemini  will follow all regulations and consumer protections laws:

”We are working with federal and state governments to launch in full compliance with all Bitcoin regulations and consumer protection laws”

The marketing focus is clearly being placed on the security aspect. They claim to have assembled the nation’s top security experts and financial engineers to make sure Gemini stays secure. Furthermore, the company says that because of its banking partnership, dollars kept on the exchange will be eligible for FDIC insurance. Gemini is not yet open to the public.


The dollar trimmed gains against the other major currencies on Friday, after downbeat U.S. housing and manufacturing reports, but the greenback still continued to trade at a 12-year peak as risk aversion continued to dominate.

In a report, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose by 2.4% in December to 5,040 million units from a revised total of 4,920 million units in November. Analysts had expected existing home sales to hit 5,060 million units last month.

Separately, research firm Markit said the U.S. flash manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 53.7 this month from 53.9 in December, disappointing expectations for a rise to 54.0.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.34% to 94.98, still close to the session's 12-year highs of 95.77.

EUR/USD eased off 11-year lows of 1.1118 to stabilize at 1.1268, down 0.83% for the day.

The euro remained under broad selling pressure after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi announced on Thursday that the bank will make monthly purchases of €60 billion per month, starting in March and continuing until late 2016.

Earlier Friday, data showed that the Markit preliminary composite PMI, which measures activity in the manufacturing and services sectors in the euro area, rose to 52.2 this month from 51.4 in December. Analysts had expected the index to rise to 51.8 in January.

In Germany, the preliminary manufacturing PMI ticked down to 51.0 this month from 51.2 in December, while the preliminary services PMI rose to 52.7 in January from 52.1 the previous month.

Markit also said that France's preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 49.5 this month from 47.5 in December, while the services PMI fell to 49.5 in January from a reading of 50.6 in December.

The pound held steady against the dollar, with GBP/USD at 1.5017, just above an 18-month trough of 1.4951 hit earlier in the day.

Sterling showed little reaction to an earlier report by the Office for National Statistics showing that U.K. retail sales rose 0.4% in December, beating expectations for a 0.6% decline, after a 1.6% increase the previous month.

Year-on-year, retail sales increased by 4.3% last month, more than the expected 3.0% rise, after a 6.4% advance in November.

Elsewhere, USD/JPY declined 0.74% to 117.64, while USD/CHF climbed 0.71% to 0.8771.

The commodity-linked currencies were broadly weaker. AUD/USD plummeted 1.12% to fresh five-and-a-half year lows at 0.7933, while NZD/USD slid 0.39% to two-and-a-half year lows of 0.7473.

USD/CAD pulled away from a nearly six-year peak of 1.2456 and consolidated at 1.2409, up 0.23% for the day. The loonie found some support after Statistics Canada said that retail sales rose 0.4% in November, exceeding expectations for an uptick of 0.1%, after a flat reading the previous month.

Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, increased by 0.7% in November, compared to expectations for a 0.5%. October's figure was revised to a 0.1% rise from a previously estimated 0.2% gain.

A separate report showed that Canada's consumer price inflation slipped 0.7% in December, confounding expectations for a 1.0% decline, after a 0.4% fall the previous month.

Core CPI, which excludes the eight most volatile items, fell 0.3% last month, in line with expectations, after a 0.2% downtick in November.

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Peringkat PT XL Axiata di Surat Utang Global

Rupiah

Pergerakan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap dolar Amerika Serikat (AS) menguat.  Meski demikian, Rupiah belum mampu kembali ke level Rp 12.300-an Berdasarkan Bloomberg Dollar Index, Jumat (23/1),  kurs Rupiah pada perdagangan non-delivery forward (NDF) menguat 28 poin atau 0,23 persen ke Rp 12.459 per USD dibandingkan dengan penutupan sebelumnya Rp 12.487 per USD.

Pada akhir pekan, Rupiah bergerak di kisaran Rp 12.410-Rp12.511 per USD. Dengan pergerakan 52 mingguan di kisaran Rp 11.254-Rp 12.938 per USD.  Sedangkan, Bank Indonesia (BI) mencatat kurs tengahnya di level Rp 12.444 per USD. ANgka ini menguat dibandingkan level sebelumnya di RP 12.451 per USD


Peringkat PT XL Axiata di Surat Utang Global di Level BBB

Fitch Rating menegaskan peringkat PT XL Axiata Tbk. (EXCL) pada surat utang global jangka panjang dan surat utang rupiah di level BBB.

Direktur International Ratings Fitch Nitin Soni dalam keterangan resmi, dan secara bersamaan, Fitch Ratings Indonesia menegaskan peringkat nasional jangka panjang XL pada level AAA(idn) dengan outlook stabil.

Peringkat nasional AAA tersebut menunjukkan peringkat tertinggi yang diberikan oleh Fitch Ratings pada skala peringkat nasional untuk Indonesia.

Peringkat ini disematkan untuk emiten atau utang emiten dengan prediksi risiko relatif terendah atas gagal bayar utang dibandingkan dengan emiten lain atau obligasi negara.

Peringkat BBB untuk XL berkaitan erat dengan kekuatan kredit induk usaha EXCL sebesar 66,5% yakni Axiata Group Berhad. Peringkat Fitch untuk XL secara top-down sesuai dengan kriteria induk dan anak usaha mengingat kepentingan strategis dan keuangan mereka bagi induk.

XL adalah anak usaha Axiata yang memiliki pertumbuhan tercepat dengan berkontribusi 35% dan 34% terhadap pendapatan dan EBITDA selama sembilan bulan yang berakhir pada 30 September 2014.

Axiata memiliki kemamuan dan kemampuan untuk mendukung keperluan XL, mengingat besarnya perusahaan dan merek yang dimiliki XL. Axiata memang memberikan dukungan nyata salah satunya dengan memberikan pinjaman US$500 juta kepada XL untuk mendanai sebagian akuisisi PT Axis Telecom senilai Rp10 triliun.

You are here: Depan > Berita Ekonomi > Rini Soemarno Tunjuk Direktur Utama SMGR
Rini Soemarno Tunjuk Direktur Utama SMGR

Menteri Badan Usaha Milik Negara (BUMN) Rini Mariani Soemarno selaku wakil pemerintah secara resmi akan menunjuk direktur utama baru PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Dijadwalkan, pemerintah segera mengangkat direktur utama SMGR menggantikan Dwi Soetjipto yang ditunjuk sebagai bos PT Pertamina (Persero).

Perombakan jajaran direksi emiten berkode saham SMGR itu dilakukan pada Jumat (23/1/2015) siang.

Perombakan jajaran direksi akan dilakukan dalam rapat umum pemegang saham (RUPS) yang digelar di Balai Kartini Jakarta, Jumat (23/1/2015), pukul 13.00 WIB.

Empat kandidat bos semen pelat merah itu disebutkan telah diseleksi oleh Menteri BUMN Rini Mariani Soemarno.




Para kandidat tersebut berasal dari internal SMGR, internal sesama BUMN, dan pihak eksternal.

Empat nama yang menguat adalah Plt. Dirut Suparni, Direktur Sumber Daya Manusia (SDM) SMGR Gatot Kustyadji, Mantan Dirut Semen Gresik yang kini menjabat sebagai Kepala Audit Internal SMGR Satriyo, dan terakhir Mantan Dirut PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Persero) Tbk. Rinaldy Firmansyah.

Berikut susudan komisaris dan direksi Semen Indonesia:
Komisaris Utama: Mahendra Siregar
Komisaris Independen: Hadi Waluyo
Komisaris Independen: Muchammad Zaidun
Komisaris Independen: Farid Prawiranegara
Komisaris: Achmad Jazidie
Komisaris: Marwanto Harjowirjono
Komisaris: Wahyu Hidayat
Plt. Direktur Utama: Suparni
Direktur Keuangan: Ahyanizzaman
Direktur Engineering & Project: Suharto
Direktur Pemasaran: Amat Pria Darma
Direktur Sumber Daya Manusia: Gatot Kustyadji
Direktur Pengembangan Usaha dan Strategi Bisnis: Johan Samudra

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Analysis Market

4.Fundamental analysis

It is important for the traders to spend the time to understand the underlying forces moving the market (fundamentals) as well as what is happening in price, volume and volatility (technicals.)
Fundamental analysis is the analysis of the economical and political condition of the countries, the currencies of which are traded in the forex market. The purpose of this analysis lies in the estimation of the possible influence by the economic forces on the currency rates fluctuation. And higher yields available in one economy should fundamentally strengthen its currency.

All information could be divided into two major categories: predictable and unpredictable factors.
Unpredictable factors include sudden political occurrences, military acts, natural and other force-major cataclysms. It is impossible to forecast nor to estimate the influence of such occurrences on the market. Unlikely a beginning trader should risk entering the market during strong rate fluctuations being influenced by the unpredictable factors.

Predictable factors contain the macro-economical news. The trader knows all about these factors: publication date and time, forecasted value of the indicators estimated by the market experts. But you can never be sure of the market reaction to the indicator factual value, if it eventually differs from the forecasted.
Here are some most important fundamental factors that play a role in the movement of a currency.

Economic Indicators

Economic indicators are reports released by the government or a private organization that indicate a country’s economic performance. These reports are published at scheduled times, providing the market with an indication of whether the economy has improved or declined. And any change from the normal range can result in the large price and volume movements.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The GDP shows the total market value of all goods and services produced in a country during a given year and it measures the country’s internal growth. Before the final GDP report is released the advance report and the preliminary report are published.

Retail Sales
The Retail Sales report measures the total receipts of all retail stores in a country. This is a timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns and is adjusted for seasonal variables.
Industrial Production

This report shows the change in the production of factories, mines and utilities within a nation. It also indicates the degree to which the capacity of each of these factories is being used.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The CPI is a measure of the change in the prices of consumer goods across over 200 different categories.

5. Technical Analysis.

Technical analysis is a method of predicting the price of a financial instrument based on mathematic (not economic) calculations. Another words, unlike in fundamental analysis, economic factors are not taken into the account in technical analysis. At first glance it may look absurd to try and predict the prices without taking into account interest rates, unemployment data, GDP levels, trade balances and so on. But those traders who rely on technical analysis only when buying or selling think that the price itself reflects the economy. They analyse the price movements in the past using various methods and predict what would be the price in the future.

Once you have a deep understanding of an indicator you should be able to anticipate what it will look like when you apply it to the chart. You would be surprised if you new that some major traders use a very simply and straight forward techniques for their analysis.

These are the most commonly used indicators:

Moving averages
Parabolic SAR
Directional movement index (DMI)
Relative strength index (RSI)
Slow stochastics
MACD


Moving Averages are technical tools designed to measure the momentum and direction of a trend. Different types of Moving Averages can be used to help traders make future decisions about their trades. Moving Averages are clear and simple to use and they can be easily incorporated into any overall strategy.

Simple Moving Average

The simple moving average is formed by computing the average price of a security over a specified number of periods. For example, a 3-day simple moving average is calculated by adding the closing prices for the last 3 days and dividing the total by 3. The averages are then joined into moving average line. Once a price has crossed a moving average line, it might indicate an upwards or downwards shift.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

The exponential moving average gives greater value to the most recent prices and the weighting is done exponentially. For example, the past values of the security receive the much less weighting and the most recent prices are more significant in determining the value of the indicator.

Smoothed Moving Average

The smoothed moving average is similar to EMA, but it considers all available data. The earliest price values receive a lower weighting. In addition, the smoothed moving average is mostly used to smoothen the price action, removing short-term volatility, allowing a better understanding of the long term momentum of the market.

Here are a few typical methods that lie at the basis of most of the strategies and methods, based on Moving Averages.

1. Crossovers - arise when the price rises or falls below the moving average, signaling the end or the beginning of a new trend. They are usually used in combination with other techniques of evaluation of the price action.
2. Divergence/Convergence - A divergence occurs when the trend has an upwards direction, but the moving average is decreasing. A convergence happens when the market trend is bearish, but the moving average is increasing. These conditions could lead to a future market reversal and it is advisable to open a counter-trend position..

Head And Shoulder Patterns

A head and shoulders pattern consists of a peak followed by a higher peak and then a lower peak with a break below the neckline. The neckline is drawn through the lowest points of the two intervening troughs and may show the upward or downward direction.

Oscillators

Oscillators are a group of indicators that were developed due to the difficulty of identifying a high or low value in the course of trading. Oscillators are aimed to identify the indicator level that hint at tops or bottoms of the price action. Oscillators can be used in ranging and trending markets. Some oscillators are very sensitive to the price action (Williams Oscillator) and they reflect market movements accurately. Some oscillators, like RSI are less volatile and are more precise in their signals, but less sensitive to the price action. Some oscillators are aimed to determine various oversold/overbought levels of the asset.

Another extremely important tool is Bollinger Bands. It is used to detect periods of low volatility in the market, reflected by drawing together bands. Low periods are usually followed by sharp breakouts and sudden increase in volatility, which is an excellent opportunity of the trader to enter the market that offers potential significant profits with well defined risks. It is also recommended to have at least a basic understanding of Elliot Wave. The applications of the technical analysis in the forex market would be to determine the overall currency trend as well as for short term timing of trades.

It is a good idea to set up your screen layouts in such a way that you see intraday charts of 4-6 major pairs at the same time. This is possible to do in your MT4 trading terminal. For intraday trading you may want to use 30 minute charts although other periods are also available. You will notice that sometimes currency pairs move in unison and may be tempted to trade a few pairs at the same time. If you are a beginning trader you should avoid doing that and try to trade one pair at a time. Stick to tried and trusted simple techniques available on the market. Do not try to invent the bicycle. It will save you time and money and will help you to trade successfully.

Understanding Candle Stick Charts:

Candlestick chart displays open, close, daily high and daily low prices. Different colors are used to show if the price went up or down during the day. Green bars indicate the price rise, and red bars indicate a decline.

Understanding Support and Resistance

Support and resistance are showing how supply and demand met. Supply is the indication for the bearish pattern and selling. Demand is the indication for the bullish pattern and buying. As demand increases, prices go up and as supply increases, prices go down. When supply and demand are equal, prices move sideways. Support level indicates the price at which buyers take control and prevent the price from falling lower. Resistance level indicates the price at which sellers take control and prevent the price from rising higher. Support levels show the price where most of investors believe that prices will move higher. Resistance levels indicate the price at which most investors expect that prices will move lower. A breakout above the resistance level shows an excessive demand as more buyers become willing to buy at higher price. The breakout below the support level shows that the supply line has shifted downward.

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Education Material

1.What is forex?

Forex (also known as FX and foreign exchange) is the market where one national currency is exchanged for another one. Unlike other financial markets that operate at a centralized location (i.e., the stock exchange), the worldwide Forex market does not have a central location. A transaction in Forex market could be as simple as a tourist buying foreign currency or as complex as a multi-level strategy executed by the bank, involving different currencies and multiple settlement dates.

It is a global electronic network of banks, financial institutions and individual Forex traders, all involved in the buying and selling of national currencies. A major feature of the Forex market is that it operates 24 hours a day, 5-6 days a week, corresponding to the opening and closing of financial centers in countries all across the world. At any time, in any location, there are buyers and sellers, making the Forex market the most liquid market in the world.

There is no central overseeing body which would oversee or control the forex market. In fact most governments have adopted a free-floating model for their currency, when the currency is not kept on any artificial level (pegged) against another currency, but is allowed to float freely and only the market determines the currency rate. However, that does not mean that currencies are immune from official attempts to influence the rates. From time to time the central bank of a particular country may decide that it is necessary to intervene in the market to achieve certain goals in the country’s economy or to make sure that the market performs in orderly fashion. Interventions are occasionally seen in practically all currencies and are one of the factors which affect the currency rates.
Why forex is easy for everyone

    You can trade in the foreign currency market. It is available to anyone and everyone.
    You don’t have to be a mathematical genius to trade in the forex market.
    You don’t have to be an economist to trade in the forex market.
    You simply have to learn what trading signals to watch for and how to respond when you see those               signals.


2. How to make money in the forex market?
    What is being bought and sold (and for what).

Traders can generate profits (or losses) whether a currency is rising or falling by buying one currency, which is anticipated to gain value against another currency or selling one currency, which is anticipated to lose value against another currency. Taking a long position is one in which a trader buys a currency at one price and aims to sell it later at a higher price. Alternatively, a short position is one in which the trader sells a currency that he anticipates to depreciate and aims to buy the currency back later at a lower price.
Understanding some basics in forex

Leverage, Margin

You have access to leverage in the forex market. Leverage gives you the ability to trade a position larger than the amount of money in your account. For example, using leverage, you could place a $100,000 trade by only using $1,000 of your own money in your account.

Word of caution: leverage is a tremendous tool for traders. It allows you to make more money on trades than you normally would if you were using only your own money. However, it also allows you to lose more money on trades than you normally would if you were using only your own money.

When you trade with leverage, you have to post margin. Margin is the amount of money you have to set aside in your account when you enter a trade. For example, if you are using 100:1 leverage and you buy 1 mini lot—which is worth $10,000—you must set aside $100 as margin ($10,000 ÷ 100 = $100).

Pip

You will be using pips to determine your profits and losses in the forex market. A pip (percentage in point) or point is the smallest unit of measurement in the Forex market. Most currency pair quotes are carried out four decimal places—i.e. 1.4500. The last decimal place is called a pip. For example, if the exchange rate of a currency pair moved from 1.4500 to 1.4510, we would say that the price moved up 10 pips. You make money when the pips move your way in a trade.

There is an exception: Any exchange rate that contains the Japanese yen or the Thai baht as one of the currencies will only be carried out two decimal places. According to the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Currency Pair

We wouldn’t have a Forex market if we weren’t able to compare the value of one currency against the value of another currency. It is this comparison that drives prices. Forex contracts are always quoted in pairs.

One distinction you do need to make when looking at a currency pair is which currency is the base currency and which currency is the quote currency. The base currency is the first currency listed in the pairing. For example, the base currency in the EUR/USD pair is the euro because it is listed first.

The base currency is important because it is the strength or weakness of this currency that is illustrated on the chart. For example, as the chart of the EUR/USD moves higher, it means the value of the euro is getting stronger as compared to the U.S. dollar.

The quote currency is the second currency listed in the pairing. For example, the quote currency in the GBP/USD pair is the U.S. dollar because it is listed second. The quote currency is important because it is the currency in which the exchange rate is quoted.

For example: when you say the exchange rate between the British Pound and the U.S. dollar is 1.7533, you are saying it costs $1.7533 to purchase ₤1. The same principle applies to the USD/CHF pair or any other currency pair. The Swiss franc is the quote currency in the USD/CHF pair. So when you say the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc is 1.2468, you are saying it costs 1.2468 Swiss francs to purchase $1.

Bid and Ask

Each currency quote consists of two components: bid and ask, with bid always quoted first and appears on the left side of the price. For example, EURUSD is given as 1.5794/1.5796, where 1.5794 is the bid.

If you want to buy the base currency, you would trade at the ask price quoted to you. If you want to sell the base currency, you will trade at the bid price.

Stop-loss

Stop-loss function is exactly what it is – it is used to limit potential losses on your open position if the market moved against you. For example, if you opened a buy order, you can set a stop loss 20 pips less than the price of your open position. In that case, if the price of the currency pair moves down by 20 pips your position will be closed automatically.

It is recommended to trade 4 main currency pairs:

The individual trader attempts to determine trends in the price movements of currencies, and by buying or selling currency pairs, attempts to gain profits. The most often traded currencies, the major currencies, are those of countries with stable governments and respected central banks that target low inflation. Currencies that often trade along with the U.S. Dollar include the European Euro, the Japanese Yen, and the British Pound as they are the most liquid. A trader can trade these currencies in any combination.

The Euro was created on 1st January 1999 by uniting national currencies of 12 European countries. Other countries soon joined and adopted the Euro. Today the daily turnover of the EURUSD pair is 3 times larger than all equity markets (the stock exchanges) of the world combined. This makes the pair a particularly attractive trading instrument. The other 3 major pairs are:

GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF

Another term you are likely to hear in relation to currencies is “cross”. Traditionally cross means a pair which does not include the domestic currency. However, it also means simply any pair which does not include the USD.

Depending on which time zone you are in, you may find that some regional currencies are more popular in your region then others. For example, the North American market hours usually see activity in Canadian dollar and Mexican peso, where the Asian market may concentrate on Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen. In recent years, due to economic development in these countries, the Russian ruble, Chinese yuan, Indian rupee and Brazilian real became very popular among some traders.

However, let’s not forget that approximately 80% of the forex market turnover usually falls on the EURUSD pair. Especially if you are a trader with limited trading experience, you are highly recommended to concentrate on the four major pairs discussed above.

3.Members of the Forex market

Commercial banks, Central banks, Investment funds, financial institutions and individual Forex traders – each member is interested in buying at lower price and selling at a higher price. Each member has his own function in the forex market. Central banks are responsible for the monetary policies, such as effecting currency intervention, change of the discount rates and reservation standards. Other market participants rapidly react to such measures and therefore influence the currency rates. Commercial banks provide liquidity for their own funds and execute clients’ orders. Brokerage companies allow individual traders to effect operations in the currency, stock and commodities markets.

Why Brokers are needed

Traders receive the economic news, datafeeds and other valuable forex market information from the news agencies, such as Dow Jones, Reuters, Bloomberg and others in real time and make decisions regarding buying or selling currency. Today the individual trader can receive all this information from the forex broker. The broker provides the trader with the necessary software, the dealing platform, where the trader can make orders in real time, see the trading results on his/her account, use indicators, graphs and many other tools in order to succeed in the forex market. Brokers provide leverage trading for their customers, which allows them to trade larger positions then the value of the initial deposit.

My Forex Group provides its customers with state-of–the-art Meta Trader 4 platform, live market datafeeds, low margins, various deposit and withdrawal options and great sign-up bonuses.

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